@book {9244, title = {Reference Module in Earth Systems and Environmental SciencesModelling species distribution, ecosystem structure and function and climate change}, year = {2023}, publisher = {Elsevier}, organization = {Elsevier}, abstract = {In recent decades, oceans have been increasingly stressed by human activities that induced significant changes in its abiotic properties. Temperature increase, acidification,\ deoxygenation, deregulation of ocean currents are some examples of the anthropogenic impact on our oceans. In addition, pollution and\ overexploitation\ of marine resources will lead to severe and possibly irreversible changes for marine life. As environmental conditions directly affect the physiology of species, changes in species distribution and\ trophic interactions\ have already been observed and are expected to increase in the near future. Predicting future oceans is currently a great challenge for scientists that work to maintain, as best as possible, the goods and services they provide. In this context, ecologists have developed several modeling approaches able to simulate changes in both species distribution (Ecological Niche Models {\textendash} ENMs) and interactions (static and dynamic food-web models). This chapter explains these two approaches in detail as well as the ways by which these two families of models can be coupled. In each part, the main existing algorithms will be reviewed, with their advantages and limitations, and some key examples retrieved from recent scientific literature will be presented. Finally, we will discuss the current issues of these methods and their potential improvement.}, isbn = {9780124095489}, doi = {10.1016/B978-0-323-90798-9.00028-7}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/B9780323907989000287}, author = {Saint-B{\'e}at, Blanche and Nogues, Quentin and Nathalie Niquil and Bourdaud, Pierre and Virginie Raybaud and Goberville, Eric and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Ben Rais Lasram, Frida and Le Loc{\textquoteright}h, Fran{\c c}ois and Schickele, Alexandre} } @article {7412, title = {European small pelagic fish distribution under global change scenarios}, journal = {Fish and Fisheries}, volume = {22}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2020}, pages = {212-225}, abstract = {The spectre of increasing impacts on exploited fish stocks in consequence of warmer climate conditions has become a major concern over the last decades. It is now imperative to improve the way we project the effects of future climate warming on fisheries. While estimating future climate-induced changes in fish distribution is an important contribution to sustainable resource management, the impacts on European small pelagic fish{\textemdash}representing over 50\% of the landings in the Mediterranean and Black Sea between 2000 and 2013{\textemdash}are yet largely understudied. Here, we investigated potential changes in the spatial distribution of seven of the most harvested small pelagic fish species in Europe under several climate change scenarios over the 21st century. For each species, we considered eight Species Distribution Models (SDMs), five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios (the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways; RCPs). Under all scenarios, our results revealed that the environmental suitability for most of the seven species may strongly decrease in the Mediterranean and western North Sea while increasing in the Black and Baltic Seas. This potential northward range expansion of species is supported by a strong convergence among projections and a low variability between RCPs. Under the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), climate-related local extinctions were expected in the south-eastern Mediterranean basin. Our results highlight that a multi-SDM, multi-GCM, multi-RCP approach is needed to produce more robust ecological scenarios of changes in exploited fish stocks in order to better anticipate the economic and social consequences of global climate change.}, issn = {1467-2960}, doi = {10.1111/faf.12515}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/faf.12515}, author = {Schickele, Alexandre and Goberville, Eric and Leroy, Boris and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Hattab, Tarek and Patrice Francour and Virginie Raybaud} } @article {6482, title = {Modelling European small pelagic fish distribution: Methodological insights}, journal = {Ecological Modelling}, volume = {416}, year = {2020}, month = {Jan-01-2020}, pages = {108902}, abstract = {The distribution of marine organisms is strongly influenced by climatic gradients worldwide. The ecological niche (sensu Hutchinson) of a species, i.e. the combination of environmental tolerances and resources required by an organism, interacts with the environment to determine its geographical range. This duality between niche and distribution allows climate change biologists to model potential species{\textquoteright} distributions from past to future conditions. While species distribution models (SDMs) have been intensively used over the last years, no consensual framework to parametrise, calibrate and evaluate models has emerged. Here, to model the contemporary (1990{\textendash}2017) spatial distribution of seven highly harvested European small pelagic fish species, we implemented a comprehensive and replicable numerical procedure based on 8 SDMs (7 from the Biomod2 framework plus the NPPEN model). This procedure considers critical issues in species distribution modelling such as sampling bias, pseudo-absence selection, model evaluation and uncertainty quantification respectively through (i) an environmental filtration of observation data, (ii) a convex hull based pseudo-absence selection, (iii) a multi-criteria evaluation of model outputs and (iv) an ensemble modelling approach. By mitigating environmental sampling bias in observation data and by identifying the most ecologically relevant predictors, our framework helps to improve the modelling of fish species{\textquoteright} environmental suitability. Not only average temperature, but also temperature variability appears as major factors driving small pelagic fish distribution, and areas of highest environmental suitability were found along the north-western Mediterranean coasts, the Bay of Biscay and the North Sea. We demonstrate in this study that the use of appropriate data pre-processing techniques, an often-overlooked step in modelling, increase model predictive performance, strengthening our confidence in the reliability of predictions.}, keywords = {Convex hull, Pseudo-absence, Sampling bias, Small pelagic fish, species distribution models, uncertainty}, issn = {03043800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108902}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0304380019304107}, author = {Schickele, Alexandre and Leroy, Boris and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Goberville, Eric and Hattab, Tarek and Patrice Francour and Virginie Raybaud} } @article {5038, title = {From species distributions to ecosystem structure and function: A methodological perspective}, journal = {ECOLOGICAL MODELLING}, volume = {334}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, pages = {78-90}, abstract = {

{As species biology and ecology is profoundly influenced by climate, any climatic alteration may have severe consequences on marine pelagic ecosystems and their food webs. It remains challenging to estimate the influence of climate on both structural and functional properties of food webs. In this study, we proposed an innovative approach to assess the propagating effects of climate change on ecosystem food web. The approach is based on a sensitivity analysis of a food-web model, a linear inverse model using a Monte Carlo method coupled with a Markov Chain, in which changes in the values of parameters are driven by external Ecological Niche Model outputs. Our sensitivity analysis was restricted to parameters regarding a keystone functional group in marine ecosystems, i.e. small pelagic fish. At the ecosystem level, the consequences were evaluated using both structural and functional ecological network indices. The approach is innovative as it is the first time that these three methods were combined to assess ecological network indices sensitivity to future climatic pressure. This coupling method was applied on the French continental shelf of the Bay of Biscay for which a food-web model already exists and where future changes in the distribution of small pelagic fish have already been examined through model building and projections. In response to the sensitivity analysis corresponding to an increase in small pelagics production only, our results suggested a more active system with an intense plankton-small pelagics-seabirds chain and an efficient recycling to maximize detritus use in the system in relation with detritus export. All results combined together seemed to be in favor of a system adapting to sustain the tested increase in production of small pelagic planktivores. Finally, regarding the innovative combination of numerical tools presented, even if further investigations are still necessary to get a more realistic view of cumulative effects resulting from one given pressure (or more) on a food web (e.g. altering different biological compartments at the same time), the Ecological Network Analysis indices values showed a higher variability under the scenarios of change. Our study thus pointed out a promising methodology to assess propagating changes in structural and functional ecosystem properties. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}

}, issn = {{0304-3800}}, doi = {{10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.04.022}}, author = {Chaalali, Aur{\'e}lie and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Virginie Raybaud and G{\'e}raldine Lassalle and Saint-B{\'e}at, B and Le Loc{\textquoteright}h, Francois and Bopp, Laurent and Samuele Tecchio and Safi, Georges and Chifflet, Marina and Lobry, Jeremy and Nathalie Niquil} } @article {5817, title = {{Future vulnerability of marine biodiversity compared with contemporary and past changes}}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {5}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

{\textcopyright} 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. Many studies have implied significant effects of global climate change on marine life. Setting these alterations into the context of historical natural change has not been attempted so far, however. Here, using a theoretical framework, we estimate the sensitivity of marine pelagic biodiversity to temperature change and evaluate its past (mid-Pliocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)), contemporaneous (1960-2013) and future (2081-2100; 4 scenarios of warming) vulnerability. Our biodiversity reconstructions were highly correlated to real data for several pelagic taxa for the contemporary and the past (LGM and mid-Pliocene) periods. Our results indicate that local species loss will be a prominent phenomenon of climate warming in permanently stratified regions, and that local species invasion will prevail in temperate and polar biomes under all climate change scenarios. Although a small amount of warming under the RCP2.6 scenario is expected to have a minor influence on marine pelagic biodiversity, moderate warming (RCP4.5) will increase by threefold the changes already observed over the past 50 years. Of most concern is that severe warming (RCP6.0 and 8.5) will affect marine pelagic biodiversity to a greater extent than temperature changes that took place between either the LGM or the mid-Pliocene and today, over an area of between 50 (RCP6.0: 46.9-52.4{\%}) and 70{\%} (RCP8.5: 69.4-73.4{\%}) of the global ocean.

}, issn = {17586798}, doi = {10.1038/nclimate2650}, author = {Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Martin Edwards and Virginie Raybaud and Goberville, Eric and Richard R Kirby} } @article {5824, title = {{Climatic Facilitation of the Colonization of an Estuary by Acartia tonsa}}, journal = {PLoS ONE}, volume = {8}, year = {2013}, abstract = {

Global change has become a major driving force of both terrestrial and marine systems. Located at the interface between these two realms, estuarine ecosystems are probably the place where both direct and indirect effects of human activities conspire together to affect biodiversity from phytoplankton to top predators. Among European estuarine systems, the Gironde is the largest estuary of Western Europe and many studies have provided evidence that it has been affected by a variety of anthropogenic stressors such as thermal and chemical pollution, physical alterations and exploitation, especially for maritime traffic. In such a context, species introduction is also a current major issue with the establishment of strong competitive species that could lead to ecosystem reorganization with potential decrease or even disappearance of native species. In the Gironde estuary, this hypothesis was proposed for the invasive shrimp species Palaemon macrodactylus as a decrease in the native species abundance was observed at the same time. Although species introduction often takes place via ballast water, the influence of climate-driven changes on the establishment of new species remains a key issue. The calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa, observed in the Gironde estuary for the first time in 1983, have since colonized most part of the estuary, reaching a level of abundance comparable to the dominant native species Eurytemora affinis. In this study, using both the concept of the ecological niche sensu Hutchinson (fundamental and realized niches) and statistical models, we reveal that the dynamics of the colonization of A. tonsa was facilitated by environmental conditions that have become closer to its environmental optimum with respect to temperature and salinity.

}, issn = {19326203}, author = {Chaalali, Aur{\'e}lie and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Virginie Raybaud and Goberville, Eric and David, Val{\'e}rie and Bo{\"e}t, Philippe and Benoit Sautour} } @article {5822, title = {{Decline in Kelp in West Europe and Climate}}, journal = {PLoS ONE}, volume = {8}, year = {2013}, abstract = {

Kelp ecosystems form widespread underwater forests playing a major role in structuring the biodiversity at a regional scale. Some seaweeds such as Laminaria digitata are also economically important, being exploited for their alginate and iodine content. Although some studies have shown that kelp ecosystems are regressing and that multiple causes are likely to be at the origin of the disappearance of certain populations, the extent to which global climate change may play a role remains speculative. Here we show that many populations of L. digitata along European coasts are on the verge of local extinction due to a climate-caused increase in sea temperature. By modeling the spatial distribution of the seaweed, we evaluate the possible implications of global climate change for the geographical patterns of the species using temperature data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Projections of the future range of L. digitata throughout the 21st century show large shifts in the suitable habitat of the kelp and a northward retreat of the southern limit of its current geographic distribution from France to Danish coasts and the southern regions of the United Kingdom. However, these projections depend on the intensity of warming. A medium to high warming is expected to lead to the extirpation of the species as early as the first half of the 21st century and there is high confidence that regional extinction will spread northwards by the end of this century. These changes are likely to cause the decline of species whose life cycle is closely dependent upon L. digitata and lead to the establishment of new ecosystems with lower ecological and economic values.

}, issn = {19326203}, author = {Virginie Raybaud and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Goberville, Eric and Delebecq, Gaspard and Destombe, Christophe and Valero, Myriam and Dominique Davoult and Morin, Pascal and Gevaert, Francois} }