@article {7654, title = {Annual phytoplankton succession results from niche-environment interactionAbstract}, journal = {Journal of Plankton Research}, volume = {43}, year = {2021}, month = {12/2020}, pages = {85{\textendash}102}, abstract = {Annual plankton succession has been investigated for many decades with hypotheses ranging from abiotic to biotic mechanisms being proposed to explain these recurrent patterns. Here, using data collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey and models originating from the MacroEcological Theory on the Arrangement of Life, we investigate Annual Phytoplankton Succession (APS) in the North Sea at a species level. Our results show that this phenomenon can be predicted well by models combining photosynthetically active radiation, temperature and macro-nutrients. Our findings suggest that APS originates from the interaction between species{\textquoteright} ecological niches and the annual environmental fluctuations at a community level. We discuss our results in the context of traditional hypotheses formulated to explain this recurrent pattern in the marine field.}, issn = {0142-7873}, doi = {10.1093/plankt/fbaa060}, url = {https://academic.oup.com/plankt/advance-article/doi/10.1093/plankt/fbaa060/6043723}, author = {Caracciolo, Mariarita and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Pierre H{\'e}laou{\"e}t and Gevaert, Francois and Martin Edwards and Lizon, Fabrice and Kl{\'e}parski, Lo{\"\i}ck and Goberville, Eric} } @article {8002, title = {North Atlantic warming over six decades drives decreases in krill abundance with no associated range shiftAbstract}, journal = {Communications Biology}, volume = {4}, year = {2021}, month = {Jan-12-2021}, abstract = {In the North Atlantic, euphausiids (krill) form a major link between primary production and predators including commercially exploited fish. This basin is warming very rapidly, with species expected to shift northwards following their thermal tolerances. Here we show, however, that there has been a 50\% decline in surface krill abundance over the last 60 years that occurred in situ, with no associated range shift. While we relate these changes to the warming climate, our study is the first to document an in situ squeeze on living space within this system. The warmer isotherms are shifting measurably northwards but cooler isotherms have remained relatively static, stalled by the subpolar fronts in the NW Atlantic. Consequently the two temperatures defining the core of krill distribution (7{\textendash}13 {\textdegree}C) were 8{\textdegree} of latitude apart 60 years ago but are presently only 4{\textdegree} apart. Over the 60 year period the core latitudinal distribution of euphausiids has remained relatively stable so a {\textquoteleft}habitat squeeze{\textquoteright}, with loss of 4{\textdegree} of latitude in living space, could explain the decline in krill. This highlights that, as the temperature warms, not all species can track isotherms and shift northward at the same rate with both losers and winners emerging under the {\textquoteleft}Atlantification{\textquoteright} of the sub-Arctic.}, doi = {10.1038/s42003-021-02159-1}, url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-021-02159-1}, author = {Martin Edwards and Pierre H{\'e}laou{\"e}t and Goberville, Eric and Lindley, Alistair and Tarling, Geraint A. and Burrows, Michael T. and Angus Atkinson} } @article {5833, title = {{Prediction of unprecedented biological shifts in the global ocean}}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {9}, year = {2019}, month = {mar}, pages = {237{\textendash}243}, abstract = {

Impermanence is an ecological principle1 but there are times when changes occur nonlinearly as abrupt community shifts (ACSs) that transform the ecosystem state and the goods and services it provides2. Here, we present a model based on niche theory3 to explain and predict ACSs at the global scale. We test our model using 14 multi-decadal time series of marine metazoans from zooplankton to fish, spanning all latitudes and the shelf to the open ocean. Predicted and observed fluctuations correspond, with both identifying ACSs at the end of the 1980s4,5,6,7 and 1990s5,8. We show that these ACSs coincide with changes in climate that alter local thermal regimes, which in turn interact with the thermal niche of species to trigger long-term and sometimes abrupt shifts at the community level. A large-scale ACS is predicted after 2014{\textemdash}unprecedented in magnitude and extent{\textemdash}coinciding with a strong El Ni{\~n}o event and major shifts in Northern Hemisphere climate. Our results underline the sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean, where unprecedented melting may reorganize biological communities5,9, and suggest an increase in the size and consequences of ACS events in a warming world.

}, issn = {1758-678X}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0420-1}, url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0420-1}, author = {Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Alessandra Conversi and Angus Atkinson and Jim E. Cloern and Sanae Chiba and Serena Fonda-Umani and Richard R Kirby and Greene, C. H. and Goberville, Eric and Otto, S. A. and Philip Chris Reid and Stemmann, L. and Martin Edwards} } @article {5817, title = {{Future vulnerability of marine biodiversity compared with contemporary and past changes}}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {5}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

{\textcopyright} 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. Many studies have implied significant effects of global climate change on marine life. Setting these alterations into the context of historical natural change has not been attempted so far, however. Here, using a theoretical framework, we estimate the sensitivity of marine pelagic biodiversity to temperature change and evaluate its past (mid-Pliocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)), contemporaneous (1960-2013) and future (2081-2100; 4 scenarios of warming) vulnerability. Our biodiversity reconstructions were highly correlated to real data for several pelagic taxa for the contemporary and the past (LGM and mid-Pliocene) periods. Our results indicate that local species loss will be a prominent phenomenon of climate warming in permanently stratified regions, and that local species invasion will prevail in temperate and polar biomes under all climate change scenarios. Although a small amount of warming under the RCP2.6 scenario is expected to have a minor influence on marine pelagic biodiversity, moderate warming (RCP4.5) will increase by threefold the changes already observed over the past 50 years. Of most concern is that severe warming (RCP6.0 and 8.5) will affect marine pelagic biodiversity to a greater extent than temperature changes that took place between either the LGM or the mid-Pliocene and today, over an area of between 50 (RCP6.0: 46.9-52.4{\%}) and 70{\%} (RCP8.5: 69.4-73.4{\%}) of the global ocean.

}, issn = {17586798}, doi = {10.1038/nclimate2650}, author = {Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Martin Edwards and Virginie Raybaud and Goberville, Eric and Richard R Kirby} } @article {5820, title = {{Synchronous response of marine plankton ecosystems to climate in the Northeast Atlantic and the North Sea}}, journal = {Journal of Marine Systems}, volume = {129}, year = {2014}, pages = {189{\textendash}202}, abstract = {

Over the last few decades, global warming has accelerated both the rate and magnitude of changes observed in many functional units of the Earth System. In this context, plankton are sentinel organisms because they are sensitive to subtle levels of changes in temperature and might help in identifying the current effects of climate change on pelagic ecosystems. In this paper, we performed a comparative approach in two regions of the North Atlantic (i.e. the Northeast Atlantic and the North Sea) to explore the relationships between changes in marine plankton, the regional physico-chemical environment and large-scale hydro-climatic forcing using four key indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the East Atlantic (EA) pattern and Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) anomalies. Our analyses suggest that long-term changes in the states of the two ecosystems were synchronous and correlated to the same large-scale hydro-climatic variables: NHT anomalies, the AMO and to a lesser extent the EA pattern. No significant correlation was found between long-term ecosystem modifications and the state of the NAO. Our results suggest that the effect of climate on these ecosystems has mainly occurred in both regions through the modulation of the thermal regime. {\textcopyright} 2013 Elsevier B.V.

}, keywords = {Climate Change, Large-scale hydro-climatic indices, Long-term changes, North Atlantic, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton}, author = {Goberville, Eric and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Martin Edwards} } @article {5825, title = {{Long-term responses of North Atlantic calcifying plankton to climate change}}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {3}, year = {2013}, pages = {263{\textendash}267}, abstract = {

The global increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is potentially threatening marine biodiversity in two ways. First, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere are causing global warming1. Second, carbon dioxide is altering sea water chemistry, making the ocean more acidic2. Although temperature has a cardinal influence on all biological processes from the molecular to the ecosystem level3, acidification might impair the process of calcification or exacerbate dissolution of calcifying organisms4. Here, we show however that North Atlantic calcifying plankton primarily responded to climate-induced changes in temperatures during the period 1960{\textendash}2009, overriding the signal from the effects of ocean acidification. We provide evidence that foraminifers, coccolithophores, both pteropod and nonpteropod molluscs and echinoderms exhibited an abrupt shift circa 1996 at a time of a substantial increase in temperature5 and that some taxa exhibited a poleward movement in agreement with expected biogeographical changes under sea temperature warming6,7. Although acidification may become a serious threat to marine calcifying organisms, our results suggest that over the study period the primary driver of North Atlantic calcifying planktonwas oceanic temperature.

}, issn = {1758-678X}, url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1753}, author = {Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and McQuatters-Gollop, Abigail and Martin Edwards and Goberville, Eric} }