@article {8002, title = {North Atlantic warming over six decades drives decreases in krill abundance with no associated range shiftAbstract}, journal = {Communications Biology}, volume = {4}, year = {2021}, month = {Jan-12-2021}, abstract = {In the North Atlantic, euphausiids (krill) form a major link between primary production and predators including commercially exploited fish. This basin is warming very rapidly, with species expected to shift northwards following their thermal tolerances. Here we show, however, that there has been a 50\% decline in surface krill abundance over the last 60 years that occurred in situ, with no associated range shift. While we relate these changes to the warming climate, our study is the first to document an in situ squeeze on living space within this system. The warmer isotherms are shifting measurably northwards but cooler isotherms have remained relatively static, stalled by the subpolar fronts in the NW Atlantic. Consequently the two temperatures defining the core of krill distribution (7{\textendash}13 {\textdegree}C) were 8{\textdegree} of latitude apart 60 years ago but are presently only 4{\textdegree} apart. Over the 60 year period the core latitudinal distribution of euphausiids has remained relatively stable so a {\textquoteleft}habitat squeeze{\textquoteright}, with loss of 4{\textdegree} of latitude in living space, could explain the decline in krill. This highlights that, as the temperature warms, not all species can track isotherms and shift northward at the same rate with both losers and winners emerging under the {\textquoteleft}Atlantification{\textquoteright} of the sub-Arctic.}, doi = {10.1038/s42003-021-02159-1}, url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-021-02159-1}, author = {Martin Edwards and Pierre H{\'e}laou{\"e}t and Goberville, Eric and Lindley, Alistair and Tarling, Geraint A. and Burrows, Michael T. and Angus Atkinson} } @article {5833, title = {{Prediction of unprecedented biological shifts in the global ocean}}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {9}, year = {2019}, month = {mar}, pages = {237{\textendash}243}, abstract = {

Impermanence is an ecological principle1 but there are times when changes occur nonlinearly as abrupt community shifts (ACSs) that transform the ecosystem state and the goods and services it provides2. Here, we present a model based on niche theory3 to explain and predict ACSs at the global scale. We test our model using 14 multi-decadal time series of marine metazoans from zooplankton to fish, spanning all latitudes and the shelf to the open ocean. Predicted and observed fluctuations correspond, with both identifying ACSs at the end of the 1980s4,5,6,7 and 1990s5,8. We show that these ACSs coincide with changes in climate that alter local thermal regimes, which in turn interact with the thermal niche of species to trigger long-term and sometimes abrupt shifts at the community level. A large-scale ACS is predicted after 2014{\textemdash}unprecedented in magnitude and extent{\textemdash}coinciding with a strong El Ni{\~n}o event and major shifts in Northern Hemisphere climate. Our results underline the sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean, where unprecedented melting may reorganize biological communities5,9, and suggest an increase in the size and consequences of ACS events in a warming world.

}, issn = {1758-678X}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0420-1}, url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0420-1}, author = {Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Alessandra Conversi and Angus Atkinson and Jim E. Cloern and Sanae Chiba and Serena Fonda-Umani and Richard R Kirby and Greene, C. H. and Goberville, Eric and Otto, S. A. and Philip Chris Reid and Stemmann, L. and Martin Edwards} } @article {6894, title = {Cross-linking plankton indicators to better define GES of pelagic habitats - EcApRHA Deliverable WP1.4}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The multimetric approach is a methodological tool which can be used to study a range of systems, including GES assessment of marine waters. Three indicators (PH1, PH2 and PH3) are currently being developed in the frame of the OSPAR convention for the pelagic habitat component. The three PH indicators provide information on different and complementary aspects of the plankton community that, only when considered altogether, provide a holistic vision of the ecosystem which is central to GES assessment. The present document aims at combining their information for the first time, following a multimetric approach. For this purpose, it was decided that the Plymouth Marine Laboratory L4 station would be the focus of this deliverable for the period 2000-2014.

Different results were obtained from PH1, PH2 and PH3 regarding dates characterized by atypical plankton community structures, stressing their complementarity. However, similar results were also found for some sampling dates, suggesting that the complementary information conveyed by the three PH indicators shows potential for generating a higher-level indicator.

This work has also evidenced a number of gaps and issues in the integration of the three PH indicators that we address with guidelines. In particular, efforts should be devoted to overcome technical difficulties in the integration the PH3 indicators, especially regarding differences in temporal resolution. Future development of the indicators could involve complementary techniques to classical methods to overcome taxonomic constraints. In the frame of this project, the access to data in certain format was identified also found problematic. Creating a central database of pre-formatted data managed by a group of experts could also benefit the regional calibration of the indicators for areas where appropriate data are available. Establishing a clear and easily accessible report which details all the monitoring guidelines concerning the metrics used for the OSPAR PH indicators could also be beneficial for homogenising the monitoring and inter-comparability of data among contracting parties in the goal of regional marine management.}, author = {Budria, Alexandre and Anais Aubert and Rombouts, Isabelle and Ostle, Clare and Angus Atkinson and Widdicombe, Claire and Goberville, Eric and Luis Felipe Artigas and Johns, David and Padegimas, Bernardas and Corcoran, Emily and McQuatters-Gollop, Abigail} }