@article {5492,
	title = {Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography},
	journal = {Ecology and Evolution},
	year = {2018},
	month = {05/2018},
	pages = {1-13},
	abstract = {Climate change and biological invasions are threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. It has now been widely acknowledged that climate change will affect biological invasions. A large number of studies have investigated predicted shifts and other changes in the geographic ranges of invasive alien species related to climate change using modeling approaches. Yet these studies have provided contradictory evidence, and no consensus has been reached. We conducted a systematic review of 423 modeling case studies included in 71 publications that have examined the predicted effects of climate change on those species. We differentiate the approaches used in these studies and synthesize their main results. Our results reaffirm the major role of climate change as a driver of invasive alien species distribution in the future. We found biases in the literature both regarding the taxa, toward plants and invertebrates, and the areas of the planet investigated. Despite these biases, we found for the plants and vertebrates studied that climate change will more frequently contribute to a decrease in species range size than an increase in the overall area occupied. This is largely due to oceans preventing terrestrial invaders from spreading poleward. In contrast, we found that the ranges of invertebrates and pathogens studied are more likely to increase following climate change. An important caveat to these findings is that researchers have rarely considered the effects of climate change on transport, introduction success, or the resulting impacts. We recommend closing these research gaps, and propose additional avenues for future investigations, as well as opportunities and challenges for managing invasions under climate change.},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4098},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ece3.4098},
	author = {Bellard, C{\'e}line and Jeschke, Jonathan M and Leroy, Boris and Mace, Georgina M}
}
@article {6691,
	title = {Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography},
	journal = {Ecology and Evolution},
	volume = {8},
	year = {2018},
	month = {Jan-06-2018},
	pages = {5688 - 5700},
	doi = {10.1002/ece3.4098},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ece3.4098},
	author = {Bellard, C{\'e}line and Jeschke, Jonathan M. and Leroy, Boris and Mace, Georgina M.}
}
@article {6686,
	title = {Without quality presence-absence data, discrimination metrics such as TSS can be misleading measures of model performance},
	journal = {Journal of Biogeography},
	volume = {45},
	year = {2018},
	month = {Jan-09-2018},
	pages = {1994 - 2002},
	doi = {10.1111/jbi.2018.45.issue-910.1111/jbi.13402},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/jbi.2018.45.issue-9http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/jbi.13402http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1111/jbi.13402/fullpdfhttps://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111\%2Fjbi.13402},
	author = {Leroy, Boris and Delsol, Robin and Hugueny, Bernard and Meynard, Christine N. and Barhoumi, Ch{\'e}{\"\i}ma and Barbet-Massin, Morgane and Bellard, C{\'e}line}
}
@article {5283,
	title = {A global picture of biological invasion threat on islands.},
	journal = {Nature Ecology \& Evolution},
	volume = {1},
	year = {2017},
	month = {11/2017},
	pages = {1862-1869},
	abstract = {<p>Biological invasions are among the main drivers of biodiversity losses. As threats from biological invasions increase, one of the most urgent tasks is to identify areas of high vulnerability. However, the lack of comprehensive information on the impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) is a problem especially on islands, where most of the recorded extinctions associated with IAS have occurred. Here we provide a global, network-oriented analysis of IAS on islands. Using network analysis, we structured 27,081 islands and 437 threatened vertebrates into 21 clusters, based on their profiles in term of invasiveness and shared vulnerabilities. These islands are mainly located in the Southern Hemisphere and many are in biodiversity hotspots. Some of the islands share similar characteristics regarding their connectivity that could be useful for understanding their response to invasive species. The major invaders found in these clusters of islands are feral cats, feral dogs, pigs and rats. Our analyses reveal those IAS that systematically act alone or in combination, and the pattern of shared IAS among threatened species, providing new information to implement effective eradication strategies. Combined with further local, contextual information this can contribute to global strategies to deal with IAS.</p>
},
	doi = {10.1038/s41559-017-0365-6},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-017-0365-6},
	author = {Bellard, C{\'e}line and Rysman, Jean-Fran{\c c}ois and Leroy, Boris and Claud, C and Mace, Georgina M}
}
@article {4546,
	title = {Major drivers of invasion risks throughout the world},
	journal = {Ecosphere},
	volume = {7},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {e01241},
	abstract = {In this paper, we investigate how climate, land use, habitat characteristics, and socioeconomic activities contribute to predict the current potential distributions of the {\textquotedblleft}100 among the world{\textquoteright}s worst invasive alien species{\textquotedblright}. We calculated the predictive power of each of the 41 variables for the 95 species including a large number of plants, vertebrates and invertebrates. We then calibrated the species distribution models with a set of appropriate variables for each invasive alien species to predict the potential distribution of these species and identify the major regions of origin of the invasive alien species. We found that climate variables were primarily predictors of the distribution of the global invaders studied. In addition, the habitat characteristics were also important predictors following by the socioeconomic variables such as the nearest distance to airports, seaports and human population density. We show that the potential areas at the highest risk of invasions from these species are located in Western Europe, Eastern United States, Central America, the eastern coast of Australia, and some Indonesian islands. We argue that these potential hotspots of invasions should be monitored in priority to prevent new invasions from these species. This study provides evidence of the importance of considering both habitat characteristics, socioeconomic and climate change factors for the current and future predictions of biological invasions.},
	doi = {10.1002/ecs2.1241},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecs2.1241/full},
	author = {Bellard, C{\'e}line and Leroy, Boris and Thuiller, Wilfried and Rysman, Jean-Fran{\c c}ois and Courchamp, Franck}
}
@article {4547,
	title = {Massive yet grossly underestimated global costs of invasive insects},
	journal = {Nature Communications},
	volume = {7},
	year = {2016},
	month = {10/2016},
	pages = {12986},
	abstract = {Insects have presented human society with some of its greatest development challenges by spreading diseases, consuming crops and damaging infrastructure. Despite the massive human and financial toll of invasive insects, cost estimates of their impacts remain sporadic, spatially incomplete and of questionable quality. Here we compile a comprehensive database of economic costs of invasive insects. Taking all reported goods and service estimates, invasive insects cost a minimum of US$70.0 billion per year globally, while associated health costs exceed US$6.9 billion per year. Total costs rise as the number of estimate increases, although many of the worst costs have already been estimated (especially those related to human health). A lack of dedicated studies, especially for reproducible goods and service estimates, implies gross underestimation of global costs. Global warming as a consequence of climate change, rising human population densities and intensifying international trade will allow these costly insects to spread into new areas, but substantial savings could be achieved by increasing surveillance, containment and public awareness.},
	doi = {10.1038/ncomms12986},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/161004/ncomms12986/full/ncomms12986.html},
	author = {Bradshaw, Corey J.A. and Leroy, Boris and Bellard, C{\'e}line and Roiz, David and Albert, C{\'e}line and Fournier, Alice and Barbet-Massin, Morgane and Salles, Jean-Michel and Simard, Fr{\'e}d{\'e}ric and Courchamp, Franck}
}
@article {3829,
	title = {virtualspecies, an R package to generate virtual species distributions},
	journal = {Ecography},
	volume = {39},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {599-607},
	abstract = {virtualspecies is a freely available package for R designed to generate virtual species distributions, a procedure increasingly used in ecology to improve species distribution models. This package combines the existing methodological approaches with the objective of generating virtual species distributions with increased ecological realism. The package includes (1) generating the probability of occurrence of a virtual species from a spatial set of environmental conditions (i.e., environmental suitability), with two different approaches; (2) converting the environmental suitability into presence-absence with a probabilistic approach; (3) introducing dispersal limitations in the realised virtual species distributions and (4) sampling occurrences with different biases in the sampling procedure. The package was designed to be extremely flexible, to allow users to simulate their own defined species-environment relationships, as well as to provide a fine control over every simulation parameter. The package also includes a function to generate random virtual species distributions. We provide a simple example in this paper showing how increasing ecological realism of the virtual species impacts the predictive performance of species distribution models. We expect that this new package will be valuable to researchers willing to test techniques and protocols of species distribution models as well as various biogeographical hypotheses.},
	doi = {10.1111/ecog.01388},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ecog.01388},
	author = {Leroy, Boris and Meynard, Christine N. and Bellard, C{\'e}line and Courchamp, Franck}
}
@article {3244,
	title = {Forecasted climate and land use changes, and protected areas: the contrasting case of spiders},
	journal = {Diversity and Distributions},
	volume = {20},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {686-697},
	keywords = {Arthropods, ensemble forecast, global changes, species distribution models, threatened species, uncertainty},
	doi = {10.1111/ddi.12191},
	author = {Leroy, Boris and Bellard, C{\'e}line and Dubos, Nicolas and Colliot, Arthur and Vasseur, Manon and Courtial, Cyril and Bakkenes, Michel and Canard, A and Fr{\'e}d{\'e}ric Ysnel}
}
@article {8137,
	title = {Vulnerability of biodiversity hotspots to global change},
	journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography},
	volume = {23},
	year = {2014},
	month = {Jan-12-2014},
	pages = {1376 - 1386},
	issn = {1466-822X},
	doi = {10.1111/geb.2014.23.issue-1210.1111/geb.12228},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/14668238/23/12},
	author = {Bellard, C{\'e}line and Leclerc, Camille and Leroy, Boris and Bakkenes, Michel and Veloz, Samuel and Thuiller, Wilfried and Courchamp, Franck}
}
