@article {5038,
	title = {From species distributions to ecosystem structure and function: A methodological perspective},
	journal = {ECOLOGICAL MODELLING},
	volume = {334},
	year = {2016},
	month = {08/2016},
	pages = {78-90},
	abstract = {<p>{As species biology and ecology is profoundly influenced by climate, any climatic alteration may have severe consequences on marine pelagic ecosystems and their food webs. It remains challenging to estimate the influence of climate on both structural and functional properties of food webs. In this study, we proposed an innovative approach to assess the propagating effects of climate change on ecosystem food web. The approach is based on a sensitivity analysis of a food-web model, a linear inverse model using a Monte Carlo method coupled with a Markov Chain, in which changes in the values of parameters are driven by external Ecological Niche Model outputs. Our sensitivity analysis was restricted to parameters regarding a keystone functional group in marine ecosystems, i.e. small pelagic fish. At the ecosystem level, the consequences were evaluated using both structural and functional ecological network indices. The approach is innovative as it is the first time that these three methods were combined to assess ecological network indices sensitivity to future climatic pressure. This coupling method was applied on the French continental shelf of the Bay of Biscay for which a food-web model already exists and where future changes in the distribution of small pelagic fish have already been examined through model building and projections. In response to the sensitivity analysis corresponding to an increase in small pelagics production only, our results suggested a more active system with an intense plankton-small pelagics-seabirds chain and an efficient recycling to maximize detritus use in the system in relation with detritus export. All results combined together seemed to be in favor of a system adapting to sustain the tested increase in production of small pelagic planktivores. Finally, regarding the innovative combination of numerical tools presented, even if further investigations are still necessary to get a more realistic view of cumulative effects resulting from one given pressure (or more) on a food web (e.g. altering different biological compartments at the same time), the Ecological Network Analysis indices values showed a higher variability under the scenarios of change. Our study thus pointed out a promising methodology to assess propagating changes in structural and functional ecosystem properties. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}</p>
},
	issn = {{0304-3800}},
	doi = {{10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.04.022}},
	author = {Chaalali, Aur{\'e}lie and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Virginie Raybaud and G{\'e}raldine Lassalle and Saint-B{\'e}at, B and Le Loc{\textquoteright}h, Francois and Bopp, Laurent and Samuele Tecchio and Safi, Georges and Chifflet, Marina and Lobry, Jeremy and Nathalie Niquil}
}
@article {5817,
	title = {{Future vulnerability of marine biodiversity compared with contemporary and past changes}},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	volume = {5},
	year = {2015},
	abstract = {<p>{\textcopyright} 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. Many studies have implied significant effects of global climate change on marine life. Setting these alterations into the context of historical natural change has not been attempted so far, however. Here, using a theoretical framework, we estimate the sensitivity of marine pelagic biodiversity to temperature change and evaluate its past (mid-Pliocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)), contemporaneous (1960-2013) and future (2081-2100; 4 scenarios of warming) vulnerability. Our biodiversity reconstructions were highly correlated to real data for several pelagic taxa for the contemporary and the past (LGM and mid-Pliocene) periods. Our results indicate that local species loss will be a prominent phenomenon of climate warming in permanently stratified regions, and that local species invasion will prevail in temperate and polar biomes under all climate change scenarios. Although a small amount of warming under the RCP2.6 scenario is expected to have a minor influence on marine pelagic biodiversity, moderate warming (RCP4.5) will increase by threefold the changes already observed over the past 50 years. Of most concern is that severe warming (RCP6.0 and 8.5) will affect marine pelagic biodiversity to a greater extent than temperature changes that took place between either the LGM or the mid-Pliocene and today, over an area of between 50 (RCP6.0: 46.9-52.4{\%}) and 70{\%} (RCP8.5: 69.4-73.4{\%}) of the global ocean.</p>
},
	issn = {17586798},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate2650},
	author = {Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Martin Edwards and Virginie Raybaud and Goberville, Eric and Richard R Kirby}
}
