@book {9244, title = {Reference Module in Earth Systems and Environmental SciencesModelling species distribution, ecosystem structure and function and climate change}, year = {2023}, publisher = {Elsevier}, organization = {Elsevier}, abstract = {In recent decades, oceans have been increasingly stressed by human activities that induced significant changes in its abiotic properties. Temperature increase, acidification,\ deoxygenation, deregulation of ocean currents are some examples of the anthropogenic impact on our oceans. In addition, pollution and\ overexploitation\ of marine resources will lead to severe and possibly irreversible changes for marine life. As environmental conditions directly affect the physiology of species, changes in species distribution and\ trophic interactions\ have already been observed and are expected to increase in the near future. Predicting future oceans is currently a great challenge for scientists that work to maintain, as best as possible, the goods and services they provide. In this context, ecologists have developed several modeling approaches able to simulate changes in both species distribution (Ecological Niche Models {\textendash} ENMs) and interactions (static and dynamic food-web models). This chapter explains these two approaches in detail as well as the ways by which these two families of models can be coupled. In each part, the main existing algorithms will be reviewed, with their advantages and limitations, and some key examples retrieved from recent scientific literature will be presented. Finally, we will discuss the current issues of these methods and their potential improvement.}, isbn = {9780124095489}, doi = {10.1016/B978-0-323-90798-9.00028-7}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/B9780323907989000287}, author = {Saint-B{\'e}at, Blanche and Nogues, Quentin and Nathalie Niquil and Bourdaud, Pierre and Virginie Raybaud and Goberville, Eric and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Ben Rais Lasram, Frida and Le Loc{\textquoteright}h, Fran{\c c}ois and Schickele, Alexandre} } @article {8902, title = {Multiple phytoplankton community responses to environmental change in a temperate coastal system: A trait-based approach}, journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science}, volume = {9}, year = {2022}, month = {Jun-10-2022}, abstract = {The effect of environmental change in structuring the phytoplankton communities of the coastal waters of the Eastern English Channel was investigated by applying a trait-based approach on two decades (1996-2019) of monitoring on diatoms and\ Phaeocystis. We show that phytoplankton species richness in an unbalanced nutrient supply context was influenced by wind-driven processes, ecological specialization for dissolved inorganic phosphorous, temporal niche differentiation, and a competition-defense and/or a growth-defense trade-off, a coexistence mechanism where weak competitors (i.e., slower growing) are better protected against predation. Under the influence of both environmental perturbations (e.g., wind-driven processes, freshwater influence, unbalanced nutrient levels) and biotic interactions (e.g., competition, predation, facilitation), phytoplankton species exhibited specific survival strategies such as investment on growth, adaptation and tolerance of species to environmental stresses, silicification and resource specialization. These strategies have led to more speciose communities, higher productivity, functional redundancy and stability in the last decade. Our results revealed that the unbalanced nutrient reduction facilitated\ Phaeocystis\ blooms and that anthropogenic climate warming and nitrate reduction may threaten the diatom communities of the eastern English Channel in a near future. Our results provide strong support for biogeographical historical and niche-based processes in structuring the phytoplankton community in this temperate region. The variety of species responses that we characterized in this region may help to better understand future changes in pelagic ecosystems, and can serve as a basis to consider functional approaches for future ecosystem management.}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.914475}, url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.914475/full}, author = {Elsa Breton and Goberville, Eric and Benoit Sautour and Ouadi, Anis and Skouroliakou, Dimitra-Ioli and Seuront, Laurent and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Kl{\'e}parski, Lo{\"\i}ck and Crouvoisier, Muriel and Pecqueur, David and Salmeron, Christophe and Cauvin, Arnaud and Poquet, Adrien and Garcia, Nicole and Gohin, Francis and Christaki, Urania} } @article {7654, title = {Annual phytoplankton succession results from niche-environment interactionAbstract}, journal = {Journal of Plankton Research}, volume = {43}, year = {2021}, month = {12/2020}, pages = {85{\textendash}102}, abstract = {Annual plankton succession has been investigated for many decades with hypotheses ranging from abiotic to biotic mechanisms being proposed to explain these recurrent patterns. Here, using data collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey and models originating from the MacroEcological Theory on the Arrangement of Life, we investigate Annual Phytoplankton Succession (APS) in the North Sea at a species level. Our results show that this phenomenon can be predicted well by models combining photosynthetically active radiation, temperature and macro-nutrients. Our findings suggest that APS originates from the interaction between species{\textquoteright} ecological niches and the annual environmental fluctuations at a community level. We discuss our results in the context of traditional hypotheses formulated to explain this recurrent pattern in the marine field.}, issn = {0142-7873}, doi = {10.1093/plankt/fbaa060}, url = {https://academic.oup.com/plankt/advance-article/doi/10.1093/plankt/fbaa060/6043723}, author = {Caracciolo, Mariarita and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Pierre H{\'e}laou{\"e}t and Gevaert, Francois and Martin Edwards and Lizon, Fabrice and Kl{\'e}parski, Lo{\"\i}ck and Goberville, Eric} } @article {7412, title = {European small pelagic fish distribution under global change scenarios}, journal = {Fish and Fisheries}, volume = {22}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2020}, pages = {212-225}, abstract = {The spectre of increasing impacts on exploited fish stocks in consequence of warmer climate conditions has become a major concern over the last decades. It is now imperative to improve the way we project the effects of future climate warming on fisheries. While estimating future climate-induced changes in fish distribution is an important contribution to sustainable resource management, the impacts on European small pelagic fish{\textemdash}representing over 50\% of the landings in the Mediterranean and Black Sea between 2000 and 2013{\textemdash}are yet largely understudied. Here, we investigated potential changes in the spatial distribution of seven of the most harvested small pelagic fish species in Europe under several climate change scenarios over the 21st century. For each species, we considered eight Species Distribution Models (SDMs), five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios (the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways; RCPs). Under all scenarios, our results revealed that the environmental suitability for most of the seven species may strongly decrease in the Mediterranean and western North Sea while increasing in the Black and Baltic Seas. This potential northward range expansion of species is supported by a strong convergence among projections and a low variability between RCPs. Under the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), climate-related local extinctions were expected in the south-eastern Mediterranean basin. Our results highlight that a multi-SDM, multi-GCM, multi-RCP approach is needed to produce more robust ecological scenarios of changes in exploited fish stocks in order to better anticipate the economic and social consequences of global climate change.}, issn = {1467-2960}, doi = {10.1111/faf.12515}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/faf.12515}, author = {Schickele, Alexandre and Goberville, Eric and Leroy, Boris and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Hattab, Tarek and Patrice Francour and Virginie Raybaud} } @article {8150, title = {Seasonal Variations in the Biodiversity, Ecological Strategy, and Specialization of Diatoms and Copepods in a Coastal System With Phaeocystis Blooms: The Key Role of Trait Trade-Offs}, journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science}, volume = {8}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, pages = {1178}, abstract = {Although eutrophication induced by anthropogenic nutrient enrichment is a driver of shifts in community composition and eventually a threat to marine biodiversity, the causes and consequences on ecosystem functioning remain greatly unknown. In this study, by applying a trait-based approach and measuring niche breadth of diatoms and copepods, the drivers and underlying mechanisms of the seasonal species succession of these ecological communities in a coastal system dominated in spring by\ Phaeocystis\ blooms were explored. It is suggested that the seasonal succession of diatoms and copepods is the result of several trade-offs among functional traits that are controlled by the seasonal abiotic and biotic pressure encountered by the plankton communities. The results of this study highlight that a trade-off between competition and predator, i.e., weak competitors are better protected against predation, plays an important role in promoting plankton species richness and triggers the\ Phaeocystis\ bloom. As often observed in eutrophicated ecosystems, only the biotic homogenization of the copepod community and the shift in the diet of copepods toward\ Phaeocystis\ detrital materials have been detected during the\ Phaeocystis\ bloom. The diatom and copepod communities respond synchronously to fluctuating resources and biotic conditions by successively selecting species with specific traits. This study confirms the key role of competition and predation in controlling annual plankton succession.}, issn = {2296-7745}, url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.656300/full}, author = {Breton, Elsa and Christaki, Urania and Benoit Sautour and Demonio, Oscar and Skouroliakou, Dimitra-Ioli and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Seuront, Laurent and Kl{\'e}parski, Lo{\"\i}ck and Poquet, Adrien and Nowaczyk, Antoine and Muriel Crouvoisier and Ferreira, Sophie and Pecqueur, David and Salmeron, Christophe and Brylinski, Jean-Michel and Lheureux, Arnaud and Goberville, Eric} } @article {7020, title = {The mathematical influence on global patterns of biodiversity}, journal = {Ecology and Evolution}, volume = {10}, year = {2020}, pages = {6494-6511}, abstract = {Although we understand how species evolve, we do not appreciate how this process has filled an empty world to create current patterns of biodiversity. Here, we conduct a numerical experiment to determine why biodiversity varies spatially on our planet. We show that spatial patterns of biodiversity are mathematically constrained and arise from the interaction between the species{\textquoteright} ecological niches and environmental variability that propagates to the community level. Our results allow us to explain key biological observations such as (a) latitudinal biodiversity gradients (LBGs) and especially why oceanic LBGs primarily peak at midlatitudes while terrestrial LBGs generally exhibit a maximum at the equator, (b) the greater biodiversity on land even though life first evolved in the sea, (c) the greater species richness at the seabed than at the sea surface, and (d) the higher neritic (i.e., species occurring in areas with a bathymetry lower than 200\ m) than oceanic (i.e., species occurring in areas with a bathymetry higher than 200\ m) biodiversity. Our results suggest that a mathematical constraint originating from a fundamental ecological interaction, that is, the niche{\textendash}environment interaction, fixes the number of species that can establish regionally by speciation or migration.}, keywords = {Biodiversity, ecological niche, large-scale patterns in species richness, models, theory}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.6385}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ece3.6385}, author = {Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Kirby, Richard R and Goberville, Eric} } @article {6482, title = {Modelling European small pelagic fish distribution: Methodological insights}, journal = {Ecological Modelling}, volume = {416}, year = {2020}, month = {Jan-01-2020}, pages = {108902}, abstract = {The distribution of marine organisms is strongly influenced by climatic gradients worldwide. The ecological niche (sensu Hutchinson) of a species, i.e. the combination of environmental tolerances and resources required by an organism, interacts with the environment to determine its geographical range. This duality between niche and distribution allows climate change biologists to model potential species{\textquoteright} distributions from past to future conditions. While species distribution models (SDMs) have been intensively used over the last years, no consensual framework to parametrise, calibrate and evaluate models has emerged. Here, to model the contemporary (1990{\textendash}2017) spatial distribution of seven highly harvested European small pelagic fish species, we implemented a comprehensive and replicable numerical procedure based on 8 SDMs (7 from the Biomod2 framework plus the NPPEN model). This procedure considers critical issues in species distribution modelling such as sampling bias, pseudo-absence selection, model evaluation and uncertainty quantification respectively through (i) an environmental filtration of observation data, (ii) a convex hull based pseudo-absence selection, (iii) a multi-criteria evaluation of model outputs and (iv) an ensemble modelling approach. By mitigating environmental sampling bias in observation data and by identifying the most ecologically relevant predictors, our framework helps to improve the modelling of fish species{\textquoteright} environmental suitability. Not only average temperature, but also temperature variability appears as major factors driving small pelagic fish distribution, and areas of highest environmental suitability were found along the north-western Mediterranean coasts, the Bay of Biscay and the North Sea. We demonstrate in this study that the use of appropriate data pre-processing techniques, an often-overlooked step in modelling, increase model predictive performance, strengthening our confidence in the reliability of predictions.}, keywords = {Convex hull, Pseudo-absence, Sampling bias, Small pelagic fish, species distribution models, uncertainty}, issn = {03043800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108902}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0304380019304107}, author = {Schickele, Alexandre and Leroy, Boris and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Goberville, Eric and Hattab, Tarek and Patrice Francour and Virginie Raybaud} } @article {5810, title = {{Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations drive the basin-scale distribution of Atlantic bluefin tuna}}, journal = {Science Advances}, volume = {5}, year = {2019}, pages = {eaar6993}, abstract = {

The Atlantic bluefin tuna (hereafter referred to as {\textquotedblleft}bluefin tuna{\textquotedblright}), one of the world{\textquoteright}s most valuable and exploited fish species, has been declining in abundance throughout the Atlantic from the 1960s until the mid-2000s. Following the establishment of drastic management measures, the stock has started to recover recently and, as a result, stakeholders have raised catch quotas by 50{\%} for the period 2017{\textendash}2020. However, stock assessments still omit the natural, long-term variability in the species distribution. Here, we explore the century-scale fluctuations in bluefin tuna abundance and distribution to demonstrate a prevailing influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to provide new insights into both the collapse of the Nordic bluefin tuna fishery circa 1963 and the recent increase in bluefin tuna abundance in the Northeast Atlantic. Our results demonstrate how climatic variability can modulate the distribution of a large migrating species to generate rapid changes in its regional abundance, and we argue that climatic variability must not be overlooked in stock management plans for effective conservation.

}, issn = {23752548}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aar6993}, author = {Robin Faillettaz and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Goberville, Eric and Richard R Kirby} } @article {5833, title = {{Prediction of unprecedented biological shifts in the global ocean}}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {9}, year = {2019}, month = {mar}, pages = {237{\textendash}243}, abstract = {

Impermanence is an ecological principle1 but there are times when changes occur nonlinearly as abrupt community shifts (ACSs) that transform the ecosystem state and the goods and services it provides2. Here, we present a model based on niche theory3 to explain and predict ACSs at the global scale. We test our model using 14 multi-decadal time series of marine metazoans from zooplankton to fish, spanning all latitudes and the shelf to the open ocean. Predicted and observed fluctuations correspond, with both identifying ACSs at the end of the 1980s4,5,6,7 and 1990s5,8. We show that these ACSs coincide with changes in climate that alter local thermal regimes, which in turn interact with the thermal niche of species to trigger long-term and sometimes abrupt shifts at the community level. A large-scale ACS is predicted after 2014{\textemdash}unprecedented in magnitude and extent{\textemdash}coinciding with a strong El Ni{\~n}o event and major shifts in Northern Hemisphere climate. Our results underline the sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean, where unprecedented melting may reorganize biological communities5,9, and suggest an increase in the size and consequences of ACS events in a warming world.

}, issn = {1758-678X}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0420-1}, url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0420-1}, author = {Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Alessandra Conversi and Angus Atkinson and Jim E. Cloern and Sanae Chiba and Serena Fonda-Umani and Richard R Kirby and Greene, C. H. and Goberville, Eric and Otto, S. A. and Philip Chris Reid and Stemmann, L. and Martin Edwards} } @article {5812, title = {{Marine biodiversity and the chessboard of life}}, journal = {PLoS ONE}, volume = {13}, year = {2018}, abstract = {

{\textcopyright} 2018 Beaugrand et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Species richness is greater in places where the number of potential niches is high. Consequently, the niche may be fundamental for understanding the arrangement of life and especially, the establishment and maintenance of the well-known Latitudinal Biodiversity Gradient (LBG). However, not all potential niches may be occupied fully in a habitat, as measured by niche vacancy/saturation. Here, we theoretically reconstruct oceanic biodiversity and analyse modeled and observed data together to examine patterns in niche saturation (i.e. the ratio between observed and theoretical biodiversity of a given taxon) for several taxonomic groups. Our results led us to hypothesize that the arrangement of marine life is constrained by the distribution of the maximal number of species{\textquoteright} niches available, which represents a fundamental mathematical limit to the number of species that can co-exist locally. We liken this arrangement to a type of chessboard where each square on the board is a geographic area, itself comprising a distinct number of sub-squares (species{\textquoteright} niches). Each sub-square on the chessboard can accept a unique species of a given ecological guild, whose occurrence is determined by speciation/extinction. Because of the interaction between the thermal niche and changes in temperature, our study shows that the chessboard has more sub-squares at mid-latitudes and we suggest that many clades should exhibit a LBG because their probability of emergence should be higher in the tropics where more niches are available. Our work reveals that each taxonomic group has its own unique chessboard and that global niche saturation increases when organismal complexity decreases. As a result, the mathematical influence of the chessboard is likely to be more prominent for taxonomic groups with low (e.g. plankton) than great (e.g. mammals) biocomplexity. Our study therefore reveals the complex interplay between a fundamental mathematical constraint on biodiversity resulting from the interaction between the species{\textquoteright} ecological niche and fluctuations in the environmental regime (here, temperature), which has a predictable component and a stochastic-like biological influence (diversification rates, origination and clade age) that may alter or blur the former.

}, issn = {19326203}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0194006}, author = {Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Christophe Luczak and Goberville, Eric and Richard R Kirby} } @article {5814, title = {{Climate change and the ash dieback crisis}}, journal = {Scientific Reports}, volume = {6}, year = {2016}, abstract = {

{\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2016. Beyond the direct influence of climate change on species distribution and phenology, indirect effects may also arise from perturbations in species interactions. Infectious diseases are strong biotic forces that can precipitate population declines and lead to biodiversity loss. It has been shown in forest ecosystems worldwide that at least 10{\%} of trees are vulnerable to extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated. In Europe, the emerging ash dieback disease caused by the fungus Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, commonly called Chalara fraxinea, is causing a severe mortality of common ash trees (Fraxinus excelsior); this is raising concerns for the persistence of this widespread tree, which is both a key component of forest ecosystems and economically important for timber production. Here, we show how the pathogen and climate change may interact to affect the future spatial distribution of the common ash. Using two presence-only models, seven General Circulation Models and four emission scenarios, we show that climate change, by affecting the host and the pathogen separately, may uncouple their spatial distribution to create a mismatch in species interaction and so a lowering of disease transmission. Consequently, as climate change expands the ranges of both species polewards it may alleviate the ash dieback crisis in southern and occidental regions at the same time.

}, issn = {20452322}, doi = {10.1038/srep35303}, author = {Goberville, Eric and Nina-Coralie Hautek{\`e}ete and Richard R Kirby and Yves Piquot and Christophe Luczak and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand} } @article {5038, title = {From species distributions to ecosystem structure and function: A methodological perspective}, journal = {ECOLOGICAL MODELLING}, volume = {334}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, pages = {78-90}, abstract = {

{As species biology and ecology is profoundly influenced by climate, any climatic alteration may have severe consequences on marine pelagic ecosystems and their food webs. It remains challenging to estimate the influence of climate on both structural and functional properties of food webs. In this study, we proposed an innovative approach to assess the propagating effects of climate change on ecosystem food web. The approach is based on a sensitivity analysis of a food-web model, a linear inverse model using a Monte Carlo method coupled with a Markov Chain, in which changes in the values of parameters are driven by external Ecological Niche Model outputs. Our sensitivity analysis was restricted to parameters regarding a keystone functional group in marine ecosystems, i.e. small pelagic fish. At the ecosystem level, the consequences were evaluated using both structural and functional ecological network indices. The approach is innovative as it is the first time that these three methods were combined to assess ecological network indices sensitivity to future climatic pressure. This coupling method was applied on the French continental shelf of the Bay of Biscay for which a food-web model already exists and where future changes in the distribution of small pelagic fish have already been examined through model building and projections. In response to the sensitivity analysis corresponding to an increase in small pelagics production only, our results suggested a more active system with an intense plankton-small pelagics-seabirds chain and an efficient recycling to maximize detritus use in the system in relation with detritus export. All results combined together seemed to be in favor of a system adapting to sustain the tested increase in production of small pelagic planktivores. Finally, regarding the innovative combination of numerical tools presented, even if further investigations are still necessary to get a more realistic view of cumulative effects resulting from one given pressure (or more) on a food web (e.g. altering different biological compartments at the same time), the Ecological Network Analysis indices values showed a higher variability under the scenarios of change. Our study thus pointed out a promising methodology to assess propagating changes in structural and functional ecosystem properties. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}

}, issn = {{0304-3800}}, doi = {{10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.04.022}}, author = {Chaalali, Aur{\'e}lie and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Virginie Raybaud and G{\'e}raldine Lassalle and Saint-B{\'e}at, B and Le Loc{\textquoteright}h, Francois and Bopp, Laurent and Samuele Tecchio and Safi, Georges and Chifflet, Marina and Lobry, Jeremy and Nathalie Niquil} } @article {5813, title = {{Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift}}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {22}, year = {2016}, abstract = {

{\textcopyright} 2016 John Wiley {\&} Sons Ltd. Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth{\textquoteright}s biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chich{\'o}n volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.

}, keywords = {Climate, Earth systems, Global change, Regime shift, Statistical analysis, Time series, Volcanic forcing}, issn = {13652486}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13106}, author = {Philip Chris Reid and Renata E. Hari and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and David M. Livingstone and Christoph Marty and Dietmar Straile and Jonathan Barichivich and Goberville, Eric and Rita Adrian and Yasuyuki Aono and Ross Brown and James Foster and Pavel Groisman and Pierre H{\'e}laou{\"e}t and Huang-Hsiung Hsu and Richard R Kirby and Jeff Knight and Alexandra Kraberg and Jianping Li and Tzu-Ting Lo and Ranga B. Myneni and Ryan P. North and Alan J. Pounds and Tim Sparks and Ren{\'e} St{\"u}bi and Yongjun Tian and Karen H. Wiltshire and Dong Xiao and Zaichun Zhu} } @article {5817, title = {{Future vulnerability of marine biodiversity compared with contemporary and past changes}}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {5}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

{\textcopyright} 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. Many studies have implied significant effects of global climate change on marine life. Setting these alterations into the context of historical natural change has not been attempted so far, however. Here, using a theoretical framework, we estimate the sensitivity of marine pelagic biodiversity to temperature change and evaluate its past (mid-Pliocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)), contemporaneous (1960-2013) and future (2081-2100; 4 scenarios of warming) vulnerability. Our biodiversity reconstructions were highly correlated to real data for several pelagic taxa for the contemporary and the past (LGM and mid-Pliocene) periods. Our results indicate that local species loss will be a prominent phenomenon of climate warming in permanently stratified regions, and that local species invasion will prevail in temperate and polar biomes under all climate change scenarios. Although a small amount of warming under the RCP2.6 scenario is expected to have a minor influence on marine pelagic biodiversity, moderate warming (RCP4.5) will increase by threefold the changes already observed over the past 50 years. Of most concern is that severe warming (RCP6.0 and 8.5) will affect marine pelagic biodiversity to a greater extent than temperature changes that took place between either the LGM or the mid-Pliocene and today, over an area of between 50 (RCP6.0: 46.9-52.4{\%}) and 70{\%} (RCP8.5: 69.4-73.4{\%}) of the global ocean.

}, issn = {17586798}, doi = {10.1038/nclimate2650}, author = {Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Martin Edwards and Virginie Raybaud and Goberville, Eric and Richard R Kirby} } @article {5816, title = {{Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models}}, journal = {Ecology and Evolution}, volume = {5}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

{\textcopyright} 2015 The Authors. Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are increasingly used by ecologists to project species potential future distribution. However the application of such models may be challenging and some caveats have already been identified. While studies have generally shown that projections may be sensitive to the ENM applied or the emission scenario to name just a few the sensitivity of ENM-based scenarios to General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been often underappreciated. Here using a multi-GCM and multi-emission scenario approach we evaluated the variability in projected distributions under future climate conditions. We modeled the ecological realized niche (sensu Hutchinson) and predicted the baseline distribution of species with contrasting spatial patterns and representative of two major functional groups of European trees: the dwarf birch and the sweet chestnut. Their future distributions were then projected onto future climatic conditions derived from seven GCMs and four emissions scenarios using the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report. Uncertainties arising from GCMs and those resulting from emissions scenarios were quantified and compared. Our study reveals that scenarios of future species distribution exhibit broad differences depending not only on emissions scenarios but also on GCMs. We found that the between-GCM variability was greater than the between-RCP variability for the next decades and both types of variability reached a similar level at the end of this century. Our result highlights that a combined multi-GCM and multi-RCP approach is needed to better consider potential trajectories and uncertainties in future species distributions. In all cases between-GCM variability increases with the level of warming and if nothing is done to alleviate global warming future species spatial distribution may become more and more difficult to anticipate. When future species spatial distributions are examined we propose to use a large number of GCMs and RCPs to better anticipate potential trajectories and quantify uncertainties.

}, keywords = {Biogeography, Climate Change, Ecological niche modeling, Global change models, Species distribution projections, Uncertainties}, issn = {20457758}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.1411}, author = {Goberville, Eric and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Nina-Coralie Hautek{\`e}ete and Yves Piquot and Christophe Luczak} } @article {5818, title = {{Marine biological shifts and climate}}, journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences}, volume = {281}, year = {2014}, pages = {20133350}, abstract = {

Phenological, biogeographic and community shifts are among the reported responses of marine ecosystems and their species to climate change. However, despite both the profound consequences for ecosystem functioning and ser- vices, our understanding of the root causes underlying these biological changes remains rudimentary. Here, we show that a significant proportion of the responses of species and communities to climate change are determinis- tic at some emergent spatio-temporal scales, enabling testable predictions and more accurate projections of future changes.We propose a theory based on the concept of the ecological niche to connect phenological, biogeographic and long-term community shifts. The theory explains approximately 70{\%} of the phenological and biogeographic shifts of a key zooplankton Calanus finmarch- icus in the North Atlantic and approximately 56{\%} of the long-term shifts in copepods observed in the North Sea during the period 1958{\textendash}2009.

}, keywords = {environmental science}, issn = {1471-2954}, author = {Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Goberville, Eric and Christophe Luczak and Richard R Kirby} } @article {5820, title = {{Synchronous response of marine plankton ecosystems to climate in the Northeast Atlantic and the North Sea}}, journal = {Journal of Marine Systems}, volume = {129}, year = {2014}, pages = {189{\textendash}202}, abstract = {

Over the last few decades, global warming has accelerated both the rate and magnitude of changes observed in many functional units of the Earth System. In this context, plankton are sentinel organisms because they are sensitive to subtle levels of changes in temperature and might help in identifying the current effects of climate change on pelagic ecosystems. In this paper, we performed a comparative approach in two regions of the North Atlantic (i.e. the Northeast Atlantic and the North Sea) to explore the relationships between changes in marine plankton, the regional physico-chemical environment and large-scale hydro-climatic forcing using four key indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the East Atlantic (EA) pattern and Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) anomalies. Our analyses suggest that long-term changes in the states of the two ecosystems were synchronous and correlated to the same large-scale hydro-climatic variables: NHT anomalies, the AMO and to a lesser extent the EA pattern. No significant correlation was found between long-term ecosystem modifications and the state of the NAO. Our results suggest that the effect of climate on these ecosystems has mainly occurred in both regions through the modulation of the thermal regime. {\textcopyright} 2013 Elsevier B.V.

}, keywords = {Climate Change, Large-scale hydro-climatic indices, Long-term changes, North Atlantic, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton}, author = {Goberville, Eric and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Martin Edwards} } @article {5826, title = {{Applying the concept of the ecological niche and a macroecological approach to understand how climate influences zooplankton: Advantages, assumptions, limitations and requirements}}, journal = {Progress in Oceanography}, volume = {111}, year = {2013}, pages = {75{\textendash}90}, abstract = {

Ecosystem effects of climate change have been detected in all components of the Earth System. In the marine biosphere, climate-change responses have caused large and well-documented biogeographical and phenological shifts, which have in turn altered local dominance hierarchies, and also the structure, diversity and functional linkages within regional marine ecosystems. There is an urgent need to improve both our knowledge of the global-scale effects of climate change on marine biodiversity and our capacity to project future impacts. But extrapolation of previously estimated changes to additional places and to future conditions is complicated by non-linear responses to environmental variables, and also by complexities of multivariate interaction that can lead to tipping-points. In this paper, we show how observations from widely-spaced locations can be combined to characterise the ecological niche of a species, and how the concept of the niche can be used to understand and project how climate-induced changes in temperatures will alter marine zooplankton both locally and globally. As an example to illustrate our view, we apply this framework to the relatively well-known copepod Calanus finmarchicus. Our results suggest that climate change will strongly affect the local abundance of this species in the North Atlantic Ocean by the end of this century. Predicted changes are large (e.g. increase by ??6-10-fold of the temporal changes in the abundance of C. finmarchicus) and vary as a function of the magnitude of warming and the local sign and steepness of the thermal niche. Substantial rates of change hold even under optimistic climatic scenarii. After reviewing the main limitations of the niche concept in bioclimatological research, we argue that the application of this concept in ecology and bioclimatology might nevertheless represent the best tool currently available to scientists to discern and anticipate the effect of global climate change on species and ecosystems. The framework we proposed forces us however to think globally and to develop a worldwide coordinated macroecological approach, that includes global monitoring, new mathematical tools of detection and new types of modeling. ?? 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

}, issn = {00796611}, author = {Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Mackas, Dave and Goberville, Eric} } @article {5824, title = {{Climatic Facilitation of the Colonization of an Estuary by Acartia tonsa}}, journal = {PLoS ONE}, volume = {8}, year = {2013}, abstract = {

Global change has become a major driving force of both terrestrial and marine systems. Located at the interface between these two realms, estuarine ecosystems are probably the place where both direct and indirect effects of human activities conspire together to affect biodiversity from phytoplankton to top predators. Among European estuarine systems, the Gironde is the largest estuary of Western Europe and many studies have provided evidence that it has been affected by a variety of anthropogenic stressors such as thermal and chemical pollution, physical alterations and exploitation, especially for maritime traffic. In such a context, species introduction is also a current major issue with the establishment of strong competitive species that could lead to ecosystem reorganization with potential decrease or even disappearance of native species. In the Gironde estuary, this hypothesis was proposed for the invasive shrimp species Palaemon macrodactylus as a decrease in the native species abundance was observed at the same time. Although species introduction often takes place via ballast water, the influence of climate-driven changes on the establishment of new species remains a key issue. The calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa, observed in the Gironde estuary for the first time in 1983, have since colonized most part of the estuary, reaching a level of abundance comparable to the dominant native species Eurytemora affinis. In this study, using both the concept of the ecological niche sensu Hutchinson (fundamental and realized niches) and statistical models, we reveal that the dynamics of the colonization of A. tonsa was facilitated by environmental conditions that have become closer to its environmental optimum with respect to temperature and salinity.

}, issn = {19326203}, author = {Chaalali, Aur{\'e}lie and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Virginie Raybaud and Goberville, Eric and David, Val{\'e}rie and Bo{\"e}t, Philippe and Benoit Sautour} } @article {5822, title = {{Decline in Kelp in West Europe and Climate}}, journal = {PLoS ONE}, volume = {8}, year = {2013}, abstract = {

Kelp ecosystems form widespread underwater forests playing a major role in structuring the biodiversity at a regional scale. Some seaweeds such as Laminaria digitata are also economically important, being exploited for their alginate and iodine content. Although some studies have shown that kelp ecosystems are regressing and that multiple causes are likely to be at the origin of the disappearance of certain populations, the extent to which global climate change may play a role remains speculative. Here we show that many populations of L. digitata along European coasts are on the verge of local extinction due to a climate-caused increase in sea temperature. By modeling the spatial distribution of the seaweed, we evaluate the possible implications of global climate change for the geographical patterns of the species using temperature data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Projections of the future range of L. digitata throughout the 21st century show large shifts in the suitable habitat of the kelp and a northward retreat of the southern limit of its current geographic distribution from France to Danish coasts and the southern regions of the United Kingdom. However, these projections depend on the intensity of warming. A medium to high warming is expected to lead to the extirpation of the species as early as the first half of the 21st century and there is high confidence that regional extinction will spread northwards by the end of this century. These changes are likely to cause the decline of species whose life cycle is closely dependent upon L. digitata and lead to the establishment of new ecosystems with lower ecological and economic values.

}, issn = {19326203}, author = {Virginie Raybaud and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Goberville, Eric and Delebecq, Gaspard and Destombe, Christophe and Valero, Myriam and Dominique Davoult and Morin, Pascal and Gevaert, Francois} } @article {5823, title = {{Long-term phenological shifts in raptor migration and climate}}, journal = {PLoS ONE}, volume = {8}, year = {2013}, abstract = {

Climate change is having a discernible effect on many biological and ecological processes. Among observed changes, modifications in bird phenology have been widely documented. However, most studies have interpreted phenological shifts as gradual biological adjustments in response to the alteration of the thermal regime. Here we analysed a long-term dataset (1980-2010) of short-distance migratory raptors in five European regions. We revealed that the responses of these birds to climate-induced changes in autumn temperatures are abrupt and synchronous at a continental scale. We found that when the temperatures increased, birds delayed their mean passage date of autumn migration. Such delay, in addition to an earlier spring migration, suggests that a significant warming may induce an extension of the breeding-area residence time of migratory raptors, which may eventually lead to residency.

}, author = {Jaffre, Mikael and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Goberville, Eric and Jiguet, Fr{\'e}d{\'e}ric and Kjell{\'e}n, Nils and Troost, Gerard and Dubois, Philippe J. and Lepr{\^e}tre, Alain and Christophe Luczak} } @article {5825, title = {{Long-term responses of North Atlantic calcifying plankton to climate change}}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {3}, year = {2013}, pages = {263{\textendash}267}, abstract = {

The global increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is potentially threatening marine biodiversity in two ways. First, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere are causing global warming1. Second, carbon dioxide is altering sea water chemistry, making the ocean more acidic2. Although temperature has a cardinal influence on all biological processes from the molecular to the ecosystem level3, acidification might impair the process of calcification or exacerbate dissolution of calcifying organisms4. Here, we show however that North Atlantic calcifying plankton primarily responded to climate-induced changes in temperatures during the period 1960{\textendash}2009, overriding the signal from the effects of ocean acidification. We provide evidence that foraminifers, coccolithophores, both pteropod and nonpteropod molluscs and echinoderms exhibited an abrupt shift circa 1996 at a time of a substantial increase in temperature5 and that some taxa exhibited a poleward movement in agreement with expected biogeographical changes under sea temperature warming6,7. Although acidification may become a serious threat to marine calcifying organisms, our results suggest that over the study period the primary driver of North Atlantic calcifying planktonwas oceanic temperature.

}, issn = {1758-678X}, url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1753}, author = {Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and McQuatters-Gollop, Abigail and Martin Edwards and Goberville, Eric} } @inbook {6895, title = {{\'E}valuation rapide des perturbations anthropiques: cas de l{\textquoteright}enrichissement en nutriments en milieux c{\^o}tiers}, booktitle = {Le 26{\`e}me Forum des Jeunes oc{\'e}anographes de France{\textquoteright}}, year = {2012}, pages = {89-95}, publisher = {Union des Oc{\'e}anographes de France}, organization = {Union des Oc{\'e}anographes de France}, abstract = {Alors que la connaissance des syst{\`e}mes naturels a consid{\'e}rablement augment{\'e}e au cours des derni{\`e}res d{\'e}cennies, la capacit{\'e} de mesurer et mod{\'e}liser ces syst{\`e}mes reste limit{\'e}e. Afin de r{\'e}pondre {\`a} cette probl{\'e}matique, nous proposons ici une nouvelle proc{\'e}dure de d{\'e}tection instantan{\'e}e et de quantification des perturbations anthropiques potentielles, {\`a} travers l{\textquoteright}exemple d{\textquoteright}un suivi de l{\textquoteright}enrichissement c{\^o}tier en nutriments.}, url = {https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00815758}, author = {Goberville, Eric and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand}, editor = {Fran{\c c}ois G Schmitt} } @article {5827, title = {{Early evaluation of coastal nutrient over-enrichment: New procedures and indicators}}, journal = {Marine Pollution Bulletin}, volume = {62}, year = {2011}, pages = {1751{\textendash}1761}, abstract = {

Recent studies have provided compelling evidence for an accelerated anthropogenic impact on coastal systems, resulting in intense inputs of materials and nutrients from the continent. This has led scientists and policymakers to encourage the implementation of monitoring programmes, which have resulted in the multiplicity of datasets. However surprisingly, only a few attempts have been made to couple observations with statistical and mathematical tools to detect, as soon as the data become available perturbations in coastal systems. Here, we propose new mathematical procedures to evaluate the state of a system, based on the building of relative reference state and indicators of nutrient over-enrichment. The techniques were tested in some French coastal systems using data from the programme SOMLIT. Applied to this dataset, the multivariate procedures rapidly identified and evaluated anthropogenic nutrient anomalies from the continent on three sites (Wimereux, Roscoff and Villefranche-sur-Mer) from 1997 onwards. {\textcopyright} 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

}, keywords = {Indicators, Monitoring, Multivariate statistical analyses, Nutrient over-enrichment, Relative reference states, SOMLIT}, author = {Goberville, Eric and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Benoit Sautour and Paul Tr{\'e}guer} } @article {5828, title = {{Evaluation of coastal perturbations: A new mathematical procedure to detect changes in the reference state of coastal systems}}, journal = {Ecological Indicators}, volume = {11}, year = {2011}, pages = {1290{\textendash}1300}, abstract = {

The pressure exerted by human activities on living systems has become so intense that it is inspiring the inception of a global network of monitoring of the biosphere and the use of robust statistical procedures to detect potential changes. Here, we propose a new multivariate non-parametric procedure, based on the Mahalanobis generalised distance and a simplification of the multiple response permutation procedure to identify rapidly changes in any natural systems. The procedure can be virtually coupled on all monitoring programmes and is not influenced by missing data, a common feature found in many ecological databases. In France, physical, chemical and biological variability of coastal waters have been monitored since 1997 by the SOMLIT Network. Applied to this data set, this technique enabled a first quantification of the impacts of human disturbance through changes in the concentration of nutrients. Our results revealed how climate may interact with anthropogenic pressure to alter coastal marine systems and suggest a synergism between nutrient enrichment, human activities and local climatic conditions. Indeed some effects of climate (e.g. insolation duration - increase in duration of daylight) may attenuate the fertility of coastal systems, while some others (e.g. precipitation) amplify the human signals. {\textcopyright} 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

}, keywords = {Anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, Climate Change, Coastal systems, Monitoring, SOMLIT}, issn = {1470160X}, author = {Goberville, Eric and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Benoit Sautour and Paul Tr{\'e}guer} } @article {5829, title = {{Climate-driven changes in coastal marine systems of western Europe}}, year = {2010}, abstract = {

Coastal marine systems, the interface between the ocean and terrestrial realms, are among the most important systems on the planet both ecologically and economically because of their crucial role in earth system functioning. Although direct impacts of human activities on physical, chemical and biological components of these systems have been widely documented, the potential influence of climate variability is less well known. Here, we used data from Service d{\textquoteright}Observation en Milieu Littoral (SOMLIT), a marine monitoring programme that has since 1997 collected samples at 12 sites located along the French coasts from 42{\textdegree} to 51{\textdegree} N. Applying standardised principal component analysis (PCA), we documented the year-to-year fluctuations in these coastal systems and evaluated the potential influence of climate variability using data on atmospheric circulation (wind intensity and direction), precipitation and temperature. Our study revealed a pronounced sensitivity of these systems to climate variability. As the impact of climate change may become more prominent in the next decades, this study suggests that climate might strongly influence the marine coastal environment and act in synergism with other anthropogenic pressures to alter the state and functioning of biological and ecological systems and the services they provide. {\textcopyright} Inter-Research 2010 {\textperiodcentered} www.int-res.com.

}, doi = {10.3354/meps08564}, author = {Goberville, Eric and Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Benoit Sautour and Paul Tr{\'e}guer and SOMLIT, Team} } @article {6897, title = {Cons{\'e}quences des changements climatiques en milieu oc{\'e}anique}, journal = {Vertigo}, volume = {Hors Serie}, year = {2010}, pages = {1-13}, abstract = {Le changement climatique a une influence grandissante sur l{\textquoteright}ensemble des composantes du syst{\`e}me terre. Cette contribution pr{\'e}sente l{\textquoteright}{\'e}volution des temp{\'e}ratures globales et montre que le changement climatique affecte les syst{\`e}mes biologiques et {\'e}cologiques de la plan{\`e}te, en particulier ceux de l{\textquoteright}Oc{\'e}an Atlantique Nord et de ses mers adjacentes. Les changements biologiques attribu{\'e}s au changement climatique affectent le phytoplancton, le zooplancton, les poissons et modifient la dominance de nombreuses esp{\`e}ces ainsi que la structure, le fonctionnement et la diversit{\'e} des {\'e}cosyst{\`e}mes. Les changements sont aussi per{\c c}us sur la biog{\'e}ographie et la ph{\'e}nologie des esp{\`e}ces et ont impliqu{\'e}, dans certaines r{\'e}gions, des changements {\'e}cosyst{\'e}miques abrupts appel{\'e}s aussi changements de r{\'e}gime. Ces alt{\'e}rations refl{\`e}tent un ajustement des syst{\`e}mes biologiques et {\'e}cologiques face au r{\'e}chauffement des temp{\'e}ratures. Les m{\'e}canismes impliqu{\'e}s sont complexes, pr{\'e}sentant des points de bifurcation et variant dans le temps et l{\textquoteright}espace. La sensibilit{\'e} des organismes vis-{\`a}-vis du r{\'e}chauffement est forte et de faibles fluctuations des temp{\'e}ratures peuvent avoir des effets prononc{\'e}s sur les syst{\`e}mes biologiques et {\'e}cologiques. Il est urgent de placer ces syst{\`e}mes sous surveillance et de d{\'e}velopper des indicateurs coupl{\'e}s {\`a} des outils statistico-math{\'e}matiques adapt{\'e}s afin de d{\'e}tecter, mieux comprendre et anticiper les modifications des syst{\`e}mes biologiques et {\'e}cologiques face au changement climatique global.}, url = {https://www.erudit.org/fr/revues/vertigo/2010-n8-vertigo3983/045530ar/}, author = {Gr{\'e}gory Beaugrand and Goberville, Eric} }