%0 Journal Article %J ECOLOGICAL MODELLING %D 2016 %T From species distributions to ecosystem structure and function: A methodological perspective %A Chaalali, Aurélie %A Grégory Beaugrand %A Virginie Raybaud %A Géraldine Lassalle %A Saint-Béat, B %A Le Loc'h, Francois %A Bopp, Laurent %A Samuele Tecchio %A Safi, Georges %A Chifflet, Marina %A Lobry, Jeremy %A Nathalie Niquil %X

{As species biology and ecology is profoundly influenced by climate, any climatic alteration may have severe consequences on marine pelagic ecosystems and their food webs. It remains challenging to estimate the influence of climate on both structural and functional properties of food webs. In this study, we proposed an innovative approach to assess the propagating effects of climate change on ecosystem food web. The approach is based on a sensitivity analysis of a food-web model, a linear inverse model using a Monte Carlo method coupled with a Markov Chain, in which changes in the values of parameters are driven by external Ecological Niche Model outputs. Our sensitivity analysis was restricted to parameters regarding a keystone functional group in marine ecosystems, i.e. small pelagic fish. At the ecosystem level, the consequences were evaluated using both structural and functional ecological network indices. The approach is innovative as it is the first time that these three methods were combined to assess ecological network indices sensitivity to future climatic pressure. This coupling method was applied on the French continental shelf of the Bay of Biscay for which a food-web model already exists and where future changes in the distribution of small pelagic fish have already been examined through model building and projections. In response to the sensitivity analysis corresponding to an increase in small pelagics production only, our results suggested a more active system with an intense plankton-small pelagics-seabirds chain and an efficient recycling to maximize detritus use in the system in relation with detritus export. All results combined together seemed to be in favor of a system adapting to sustain the tested increase in production of small pelagic planktivores. Finally, regarding the innovative combination of numerical tools presented, even if further investigations are still necessary to get a more realistic view of cumulative effects resulting from one given pressure (or more) on a food web (e.g. altering different biological compartments at the same time), the Ecological Network Analysis indices values showed a higher variability under the scenarios of change. Our study thus pointed out a promising methodology to assess propagating changes in structural and functional ecosystem properties. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}

%B ECOLOGICAL MODELLING %V 334 %P 78-90 %8 08/2016 %G eng %R {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.04.022} %0 Journal Article %J ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS %D 2015 %T Using ecological models to assess ecosystem status in support of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive %A Piroddi, Chiara %A Teixeira, Heliana %A Lynam, Christopher P. %A Smith, Chris %A Alvarez, Maria C. %A Mazik, Krysia %A Andonegi, Eider %A Churilova, Tanya %A Tedesco, Letizia %A Chifflet, Marina %A Chust, Guillem %A Galparsoro, Ibon %A Garcia, Ana Carla %A Kamari, Maria %A Kryvenko, Olga %A Géraldine Lassalle %A Neville, Suzanna %A Nathalie Niquil %A Papadopoulou, Nadia %A Rossberg, Axel G. %A Suslin, Vjacheslav %A Uyarra, Maria C. %X

The European Union's Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) seeks to achieve, for all European seas, "Good Environmental Status" (GEnS), by 2020. Ecological models are currently one of the strongest approaches used to predicting and understanding the consequences of anthropogenic and climate-driven changes in the natural environment. We assess the most commonly used capabilities of the modelling community to provide information about indicators outlined in the MSFD, particularly on biodiversity, food webs, non-indigenous species and seafloor integrity descriptors. We built a catalogue of models and their derived indicators to assess which models were able to demonstrate: (1) the linkages between indicators and ecosystem structure and function and (2) the impact of pressures on ecosystem state through indicators. Our survey identified 44 ecological models being implemented in Europe, with a high prevalence of those that focus on links between hydrodynamics and biogeochemistry, followed by end-to-end, species distribution/habitat suitability, bio-optical (remote sensing) and multispecies models. Approximately 200 indicators could be derived from these models, the majority of which were biomass and physical/hydrological/chemical indicators. Biodiversity and food webs descriptors, with similar to 49% and similar to 43% respectively, were better addressed in the reviewed modelling approaches than the non-indigenous species (0.3%) and sea floor integrity (similar to 8%) descriptors. Out of 12 criteria and 21 MSFD indicators relevant to the abovementioned descriptors, currently only three indicators were not addressed by the 44 models reviewed. Modelling approaches showed also the potential to inform on the complex, integrative ecosystem dimensions while addressing ecosystem fundamental properties, such as interactions between structural components and ecosystems services provided, despite the fact that they are not part of the MSFD indicators set. The cataloguing of models and their derived indicators presented in this study, aim at helping the planning and integration of policies like the MSFD which require the assessment of all European Seas in relation to their ecosystem status and pressures associated and the establishment of environmental targets (through the use of indicators) to achieve GEnS by 2020. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

%B ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS %V 58 %P 175-191 %8 NOV %G eng %R {10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.05.037}