%0 Journal Article %J Nature Climate Change %D 2019 %T Prediction of unprecedented biological shifts in the global ocean %A Grégory Beaugrand %A Alessandra Conversi %A Angus Atkinson %A Jim E. Cloern %A Sanae Chiba %A Serena Fonda-Umani %A Richard R Kirby %A Greene, C. H. %A Goberville, Eric %A Otto, S. A. %A Philip Chris Reid %A Stemmann, L. %A Martin Edwards %X

Impermanence is an ecological principle1 but there are times when changes occur nonlinearly as abrupt community shifts (ACSs) that transform the ecosystem state and the goods and services it provides2. Here, we present a model based on niche theory3 to explain and predict ACSs at the global scale. We test our model using 14 multi-decadal time series of marine metazoans from zooplankton to fish, spanning all latitudes and the shelf to the open ocean. Predicted and observed fluctuations correspond, with both identifying ACSs at the end of the 1980s4,5,6,7 and 1990s5,8. We show that these ACSs coincide with changes in climate that alter local thermal regimes, which in turn interact with the thermal niche of species to trigger long-term and sometimes abrupt shifts at the community level. A large-scale ACS is predicted after 2014—unprecedented in magnitude and extent—coinciding with a strong El Niño event and major shifts in Northern Hemisphere climate. Our results underline the sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean, where unprecedented melting may reorganize biological communities5,9, and suggest an increase in the size and consequences of ACS events in a warming world.

%B Nature Climate Change %V 9 %P 237–243 %8 mar %G eng %U http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0420-1 %R 10.1038/s41558-019-0420-1 %0 Journal Article %J Global Change Biology %D 2016 %T Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift %A Philip Chris Reid %A Renata E. Hari %A Grégory Beaugrand %A David M. Livingstone %A Christoph Marty %A Dietmar Straile %A Jonathan Barichivich %A Goberville, Eric %A Rita Adrian %A Yasuyuki Aono %A Ross Brown %A James Foster %A Pavel Groisman %A Pierre Hélaouët %A Huang‐Hsiung Hsu %A Richard R Kirby %A Jeff Knight %A Alexandra Kraberg %A Jianping Li %A Tzu‐Ting Lo %A Ranga B. Myneni %A Ryan P. North %A Alan J. Pounds %A Tim Sparks %A René Stübi %A Yongjun Tian %A Karen H. Wiltshire %A Dong Xiao %A Zaichun Zhu %K Climate %K Earth systems %K Global change %K Regime shift %K Statistical analysis %K Time series %K Volcanic forcing %X

© 2016 John Wiley {&} Sons Ltd. Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.

%B Global Change Biology %V 22 %G eng %R 10.1111/gcb.13106