Year of Publication
2019

Journal

Nature Climate Change
Volume
9
Date Published
mar
Number of Pages
237–243
DOI
10.1038/s41558-019-0420-1
URL
http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0420-1
ISSN Number
1758-678X
HCERES category
ACL - Articles in international or national peer-reviewed journals indexed by HCERES or in international databases
Abstract

<p>Impermanence is an ecological principle<sup>1</sup> but there are times when changes occur nonlinearly as abrupt community shifts (ACSs) that transform the ecosystem state and the goods and services it provides<sup>2</sup>. Here, we present a model based on niche theory<sup>3</sup> to explain and predict ACSs at the global scale. We test our model using 14 multi-decadal time series of marine metazoans from zooplankton to fish, spanning all latitudes and the shelf to the open ocean. Predicted and observed fluctuations correspond, with both identifying ACSs at the end of the 1980s<sup>4,5,6,7</sup> and 1990s<sup>5,8</sup>. We show that these ACSs coincide with changes in climate that alter local thermal regimes, which in turn interact with the thermal niche of species to trigger long-term and sometimes abrupt shifts at the community level. A large-scale ACS is predicted after 2014—unprecedented in magnitude and extent—coinciding with a strong El Niño event and major shifts in Northern Hemisphere climate. Our results underline the sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean, where unprecedented melting may reorganize biological communities<sup>5,9</sup>, and suggest an increase in the size and consequences of ACS events in a warming world.</p>