Bruno SERRANITO

Study of Niche Conservatism and Modeling the Distribution of Non-Indigenous Species in Metropolitan Coastal Zones (CANELONI)

Biological invasions pose one of the most pressing threats to the integrity of ecosystems, particularly within European coastal waters. Assessing and anticipating the state of invasions remains a major challenge in the management of invasive species, enabling the deployment of cost-effective and efficient monitoring strategies. Relying on quantifying the links between species and the environment, species distribution models (SDMs) are among the most widely used tools to predict the potential distribution of invasive non-indigenous species and identify invasion risks. However, their use is contingent on a set of assumptions, including that of conservatism, which characterizes the conservation of species' ecological niches in space and time. The lack of validity of this rarely verified assumption is a significant source of error in invasion risk assessment.

Combining the study of conservatism with ecological niche modeling, the CANELONI project aims to establish an invasion risk assessment for three non-indigenous invasive species, representing different degrees of establishment, within metropolitan coastal zones. In this regard, the project serves as a potential framework for monitoring non-indigenous species, providing relevant information for future assessments required by the Directorate for Maritime Affairs and Coastal Protection (DCSMM). Additionally, the project will contribute to raising awareness among coastal stakeholders about issues related to non-indigenous species and their consequences. It aims to guide citizen involvement in terms of monitoring through mediation and the wide dissemination of the obtained results.