Joséphine BROUSSIN

A framework for modelling CLImate change impacts on Northeast Atlantic MARine RESources (CLIMARES)

Climate change impacts the oceans and its flora and fauna directly (warming, acidification) and indirectly (trophic disruption). This change could lead to a biogeographic shift of many endemic species (northward shift of temperate species, decline of polar species) as well as an increase in the range and/or number of invasive species. The North-East Atlantic, important at the ecosystemic and economic levels, remains an area where these impacts are poorly known.

My thesis will attempt to determine the ecological and socio-economic impact of climate change in the North-East Atlantic by achieving 3 objectives:

1. Project the redistribution of the major marine resources exploited in the North-East Atlantic during the 21st century through ecological niche modeling and the ecological filter method. These methods are predictive but are associated with uncertainty. Quantifying and incorporating this uncertainty will be an important part of the work.
2. Evaluate the economic consequences of this expected redistribution using metrics such as Maximum Catch Potential (MCP) and Mean Revenue Potential (MRP). The evolution of revenues will be estimated at the national and local (fishing port) scales.
3. Estimate the resilience of existing conservation strategies and propose spatial planning scenarios in relation to this expected redistribution and provide sustainable management scenarios, from the least ecologically relevant to the most politically controversial. These scenarios will be produced with two decision support tools, Marxan (achieving specified objectives at minimum cost) and Zonation (maximizing benefits for a fixed cost)